THEATER: BLACK SEA

How might the war evolve if NATO tries to operate more aggressively in the Black Sea?

By Danny Smith

For thirteen long years the US and British navies had taken possession of the waters of the Persian Gulf with the mission of strangling Iraq's economy and trade. This caused, among other things and only prior to the invasion of March 2003, the death of more than 500,000 children from starvation and lack of medicine. Beyond the United Nations resolutions authorizing these measures and with which Washington shielded itself, the humanitarian consequences on the Iraqi population continue to be a great debt that no international body has investigated, much less prosecuted.

This is related to what is currently happening in Ukraine where military operations are being dangerously transferred to the Black Sea. Since Russia terminated the grain agreement allowing the transit of ships to and from Ukraine for commercial purposes, military actions launched from the coastal areas over the Kerch Bridge or even against the Crimean shores have been escalating dangerously.

It should be recalled that the resolution of the agreement was due to the trafficking of arms of the Atlantist partners camouflaged with grain cargoes, an action that does not seem to have been considered by the Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez. Precisely, and after several drone attacks on the city of Belgorod and Moscow, the Russian forces struck in a devastating way on the infrastructure of the Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea such as Odessa and also on the Danube River such as the ports of Reni and Izmail.

Since the beginning of the Special Military Operation the Black Sea has been under constant surveillance of the Russian naval and air forces and the Russian Navy focusing their operations on protecting the eastern waters at the entrance to the Sea of Azov.

It was inevitable that this water space would become a theater of operations.

Following the mounting of several naval drone and Storm Shadow missile attacks against the Kerch Bridge and Russian ships coordinated by Ukrainian cells under the direction of British S.B.S. and S.A.S. advisors, Russian patrols have extended their operations to the western Black Sea as a way to prevent similar attacks. Alongside these conventional operations, the Intelligence Directorate of the Main Staff of the Russian Navy carries out extensive human and electronic intelligence activities covering the entire Black Sea and this has complicated interference from their Atlanticist colleagues.

In addition to these security and reconnaissance operations, the interdiction and boarding of vessels trying to reach Ukrainian ports for unclear purposes has been extended, leading in several cases to opening fire on those trying to flee. This determination has already put on guard the usual rogues like Turkey which, as we know, has one foot on each end of the board and with the leadership of an opportunistic politician like President Tiyip Erdogan, all precautions are worthwhile as he only thinks of his own benefits.

It is clear that President Vladimir Putin is not surprised by this. This is not the first time Erdogan has launched rapious stabs against Russia. The experience in Syria back in 2015 was a sign of this. Turkey is part of NATO and yet, attempts by Turkish-flagged ships trying to violate restrictions against the security of the Federation are unceremoniously aborted by Russian frigates such as happened with the cargo ship “Şükrü Okan”.

This has agitated the admirals of the “Türk Donanmas” (Turkish Navy) with their General Staff in Ankara, who together with Erdogan would be evaluating how to deal with the situation. It should not be forgotten that Turkey controls the strategic passage through the Bosphorus and just as it does not allow warships to pass (in accordance with the Montreaux Convention of 1936) at any moment -and in the face of speculation that gives Erdogan an advantage- it could play the fool and allow NATO contingents to pass through.

Those who are most dismayed by this are the Americans and in particular those who maintain their influence over the admiralty in NATO who see their operations in support of Kiev hampered.

According to former US Admiral James Stavridis, this situation is hampering operations on land and this could force a naval intervention by the Atlantic organization, predicting that this would be counterproductive for the Russian Navy. For Stavridis, this Russian blockade is illegal without saying anything about the dubious “legality” that Washington considers it implies to support the terrorist actions carried out by Ukrainian groups on Russian territory.

For NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, Russia is carrying out “dangerous and escalatory actions in the Black Sea”. This is what I wondered and what anyone with a bit of brains questions. The dangerous actions and provocations (such as the assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin) that would justify an escalation have long since been executed only the Kremlin will not be the first to push the button.

With this kind of comments we again see the degree of cynicism that Atlanticist officials harbor when giving their views.

Before these new circumstances that turn the Black Sea into an active Theater of Operations, NATO would be working with the navies of the riverine countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey to build a task force to try to counterbalance the situation. At first glance it is not surprising. All of them are part of NATO and that is why there is no doubt that they have been indirectly involved in the area for a long time, producing naval intelligence that helps Kiev to carry out its attacks.