REALISTIC PROBABILITIES

Are Donald Trump's promises about seeking peace in Ukraine sincere, and if it is all a hoax, what are the margins of manoeuvre to get his way?

 

By Sidney Hey 

The clock is ticking and it will be less and less time before Donald Trump arrives at the White House and we will see if he will really deliver on his spectacular announcements, especially with regard to peace for Eurasia. For the time being, let me be a little suspicious, especially when I understand the Anglo-Saxon way of thinking very well.

If anyone thinks that the warmongering bureaucrats in Washington will run away with Joe Biden and his corrupt entourage, they are sorely mistaken. There is only a partial change of players, the game plan remains the same even if Trump says otherwise. In reality it is already known that he brings with him a complex strategy to knock out, or at least try to knock out, BRICS+ multilateralism.

Most concerned about this are the Russians, the Chinese and obviously the whole axis of Arab-Islamic resistance with Iran in the lead who do not hesitate a direct clash. In the case of the Russian Federation, there is an unreliable view of Trump's promises given his recent meetings and contacts with Zelensky and his European allies. From what has transpired, Zelensky has not been concerned or disturbed by Trump's words…so what?

The media in the West will continue to blur insulting and Russophobic narratives, blocking any counter-narratives that challenge their views. Or why do they think there are offices like the Independent Television Commission (ITC) in the UK or the ACMA in Australia?

But while the Anglo-Americans try to prop up the ruins of their puny hegemony with science fiction narratives, resorting to manipulations such as gaslighting and dressing up situations such as a neo-Nazi junta in Ukraine as a democracy, Moscow is already preparing to give them a reality check.

Defence Minister Andrei Belousov's statements predicting prospects of escalating developments that could lead in the next decade to a direct conflict with NATO are highly indicative of how little confidence there is in awaiting the good auspices of the incoming Trump administration. In fact, it is certain that Vladimir Putin himself has been aware from day one that nothing can be expected from the US.

How can anyone's words of peace be credible when they continue to send military aid packages and hold talks with war mongers?

We already know that the Ukrainian comedian-turned-commander does not care about the lives of his people, let alone how many must die to fulfil his personal ambitions that are tied to his Anglo-American backers. Much less in Washington where it has been made very clear that they will support Zelensky to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. Moreover, if necessary, the age of conscription must be lowered.

At the same time, the attacks on Russian territory with American, British and French weapons continue without their respective governments taking any notice, to which are added the terrorist attacks by the Nazi cells that make up the SBU with the now far from secret direction and support of the CIA and MI6, talk of peace?

The logic of decorative democracies is violence (we know this and the examples are there for all to see) and the only limit they respect is by applying the same logic to their actions. Unlike other adversaries, Russia possesses strategic capabilities that US policymakers did not initially believe and even launched provocations to try to find a reaction in Moscow that would reveal the extent of those capabilities.

Washington was sure that while Russia has intercontinental hypersonic missile (ICBM) capabilities, which they do not yet have effective countermeasures to stop, they were not suitable for the hybrid warfare they are pushing in Ukraine. But on 21 November the sudden appearance of hypersonic tactical missiles (of which they were unaware) dramatically changed their roles.

The latest statements by Colonel General Karakaev, in charge of Strategic Missile Forces, provide an illuminating framework for Russia's capabilities to defeat US missile shields. The word ‘Oreshnik’ is already a cause for panic among Defence Department advisers and Pentagon bureaucrats as this kind of weaponry dramatically changes the outlook for material support and possible direct involvement of NATO troops on the ground. In short, NATO troops, and especially US troops, are not guaranteed security in the face of this.

The use of just one of these missiles (just like the photo up there) carrying multiple warheads (which can be conventional or NBC) and which did not carry explosives but which, had it done so, would have shaken for miles around like an earthquake, demonstrated a gentleness on Moscow's part in the destruction that this attack caused.

Surely Donald Trump is already being briefed on the situation and these Russian capabilities and at the same time asking his military advisors for information on whether there are possibilities of obtaining similar weaponry or the development of countermeasures for this. He knows he promised things he was not prepared to deliver, but he promised them to the wrong people, because it is one thing to promise the Mexicans a wall to keep them out, or financial aid to fickle governments of South American countries who will say nothing if you break them.

Perhaps Trump will try to get along with Moscow and especially Vladimir Putin, perhaps he will try to play a tricky card hidden up his sleeve, but the next occupant of the White House knows that he has China, which is unwilling to continue with provocations in its seas, and on top of that he is facing the Russian Federation, which with these tactical capabilities can pulverise his assets in Eurasia. The odds for disaster are very real, so as an English friend of mine would say: “this is too much, Mate!”