RAISIS FALLED DOWN?

Why are there grounds for suspicion in the alleged accidental crash of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebraim Raisi and his entourage?

 

By Sidney Hey

The crash of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebraim Raisi and his governmental entourage has not only come as a surprise blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran, but behind the grief and official condolences, a whirlwind of speculation has been unleashed as to the true cause of the event.

The restraint with which the media in the West have dealt with the event has cast suspicion on this position as an ‘accident’, to say the least. In addition, the early denials of any involvement from Tel Aviv add a further layer of opacity to the matter.

Raisi's death does not appear to be an event of chance or, if you like, predestination. There is no such thing as chance. There is a very suspicious political circumstantiality that gives this event a nuance that would reveal a customary tactic that, for some time now, has been intended to be generalised against high dignitaries. The assassination attempt against Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico five days before the death of the Iranian leader is -if you like- all too curious.

The timing and location of the attack show a degree of planning that is more elaborate than one would like to acknowledge.

Fico's great sin was to criticise the policies of the Slovak state in favour of NATO's support for Ukraine. The prime minister had been pointing out that the solution to the Ukraine issue was not a military one, something that Washington and the Western interests behind the war definitely did not like. To make matters worse, Fico made no secret of his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who represents the ‘bête noire’ for Ukrainian ultra-nationalists and their Anglo-American backers. And as luck would have it, a 71-year-old ‘madman’ appeared and unleashed several shots at him with the clear intention of assassinating him, but with no luck. Today this alleged improvised attacker is in the hands of the justice system, but it cannot be ruled out that something could happen to him.

The alleged crash of Raisi's helicopter could be compared to the crash of the Yevgeny Prigozhin plane in August 2023 or even to the mysterious crash of the plane carrying Polish President Lech Kaczyński in April 2010 (similar to the death of his counterpart Wladyskaw Sikorski in 1943). In all three cases, the aircraft passed through isolated areas of dense fog and woodland, which made it easy for the perpetrators to hide, and they would even have ascertained the outcome.

Regarding the crash of the helicopter carrying Raisi and his officials, there are several factors that should not be overlooked.  First, the downed helicopter was a rather old US-made ‘Bell 212’. Second, where the helicopter landed for Raisi's visit. Third, the return route and the area where the helicopter came down.

While the type of helicopter is of considerable age, it has been noted that it is mechanically very reliable and would not collapse from any failure. Even the weather factors present at the time such as fog and drizzle would not explain any cause for such sudden failures. Another peculiarity is that the other two helicopters that went through the same conditions reached their destination without any problems.

If we consider that it was sabotage, let's look at the possible perpetrators, their motives and the means employed. The first is the US, which does not like the intimate military-commercial relations with Russia and its strategic support against Ukraine. Another could be a NATO member as an outsourced agent for the execution of the attack, as happened with the sabotage of the Baltic gas pipelines. The one who undoubtedly takes first place is Israel since just a month ago Iran launched an unprecedented attack that left Netanyahu and his supporters with blood in their eyes. Recall that Tel Aviv had ordered a more destructive retaliation that was carried out by an F-35 that was shot down over Jordan. But in addition to revenge, the aim was to get out of the way of a leader who had shown he would have no problem attacking again.

If either of these hypotheses is correct, there is an unforgivable degree of negligence in Iranian security and intelligence that could not have foreseen it.

The wooded setting where the aircraft went down lends itself well to an ambush. A single, well-concealed shooter with a semi-automatic rifle could have been the cause, but how did that shooter identify the device Raisi was on, was it a single shooter or a team?

The visit to the inauguration of a dam on the Aras River in a province bordering Armenia and Azerbaijan (where there is a known Israeli presence) is undoubtedly the most important clue to follow in order to determine the possibility of a sabotage operation on the aircraft or even marking it to be targeted remotely from a ground location.  While this would be a possibility, (based on what the Iranians say) it would not have been carried out by conventional means such as gunfire, an explosive placed on board or the use of a portable missile.

If it was sabotage, the saboteurs used a sophisticated remote means that exploited one of the helicopter's electromagnetic vulnerabilities such as an electromagnetic brake. It is possible that the helicopter suddenly lost control due to the external induction of an electromagnetic force that simply dislocated the entire electrical system on board, making it impossible to control.

The means to cause these effects not only exist but have already been used on several occasions to achieve the appearance of a simple accident.