STRATEGIC COORDINATION

With the increase of red signals in the South Sea, how is cooperation between Russia and China progressing?

 

By Sidney Hey

Those who can anticipate their enemy's next move have a good chance of winning a war. This is what China is suggesting with its strategic cooperation with its Slavic neighbour, which was ratified after the last meeting between their leaders at the Shanghai summit.

While the press of the "collective West", which is the same as saying "Atlanticist", continues to distract (in a discretionary manner) from what is happening in Eurasia and particularly in Ukraine, NATO naval forces under the command of the Americans -AUKUS in particular- stealthily advance in the waters of the South Sea while at the same time their intelligence agencies try to soften up and influence the governments of the riverine countries with the sole intention of sowing mistrust towards China.

These manoeuvres are a prelude to a very likely aggression that is now being urged by the volatility and political uncertainty in the US in the run-up to next November's presidential election. While it can be taken for granted that Biden will participate and that Donald Trump will emerge victorious, names matter little since it is the "deep state" that decides how and what will be done, and let us not forget that the Pentagon and the arms industry are part of it.

China is, for this underbelly of Anglo-American power, the most feared and resented danger, even more so than Russia. Not only has Biden failed to re-establish hegemony over the East -especially China - but he no longer knows where he stands. On top of that, Biden and his administration are tainted by his complicity in the Palestinian genocide, making him deeply unpopular with much of America's youth. From this perspective, a president like Trump would be a good fit to pursue a more aggressive and unfettered approach not only to Chinese interests throughout the hemisphere but also to the People's Republic itself. That is why Trump's promises to stop the war in Ukraine may well be a ploy to get Moscow and Beijing to lower their guard.

At the same time, Beijing is well aware of this and will not sit back and wait for war (in whatever form), as happened to Russia with the Ukraine trap, to come knocking at its door. They also know that the US will not strike head-on, let alone in a way that will embarrass it. Deception through covert operations mounted by the CIA and their British colleagues in MI6 -and all the assets they maintain in the region- is the method par excellence to be expected. History is familiar with it and the Chinese know it well. They know that there is strength in numbers and that is why they are going down the path of cooperation (in all areas of life for both states) and greater engagement with the Russian Federation. 

This of course has sparked the ire of US officials, especially neo-conservatives (pro-war) who have gone so far as to say that China is delivering weapons to support Russian efforts in Ukraine. Despite denials from Beijing's foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian, Beijing should not have to explain its policy to Washington or any other state.

For some time now, the armed forces of both countries have been engaged in joint actions to focus on specific objectives such as combating terrorism and insurgent movements, which, let's remember, are black holes through which Western intelligence agencies penetrate. But since Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2022 and especially in the current geopolitical circumstances, defence and intelligence cooperation has been enhanced to work on common strategic objectives, one of them being the protection of Chinese territorial waters constantly threatened by marauding NATO naval forces, which by 2030 will be augmented by Aussie nuclear submarines.

Although the People's Republic, as part of the People's Liberation Army, has a navy comprising three fleets, one in the North, one in the South and one in the East, which makes it as large as that of the United States, the quality aspect remains an area for improvement. It is known that since the mid-1990s and more precisely by 1998 China began a gradual improvement and modernisation of its fleets including, among other ships, the construction of an all-Chinese aircraft carrier. Thus it was that in 2017 the aircraft carrier "CNS Shandong" was officially launched, bringing to the present three something that makes the bureaucrats of the US Department of Defence and the Pentagon very nervous.

On the other hand, the Russian Navy has been intensively engaged in real warfare in the Black Sea theatre of operations, which gives it valuable experience to share with the Chinese, who know that they will have to deal with similar threats in their vast southern waters at any time.

It is clear that the strengthening of these relations has to do with Russia's announced project to implement a multilateral defence system that goes beyond Asia.

The arrival of two Russian corvettes in the Chinese port of Zhanjiang for joint naval exercises called "Maritime Interaction 2024", in which they will work on naval and anti-submarine tactics, can be seen in this context. 

This deployment is within a strategic geographical space between Vietnam, Hong Kong and halfway to Taiwan in the waters of the South Sea, sending a loud and clear message to the West.