MODI'S MISSTEP

What prompted the Narendra Modi government to launch an attack on Pakistan?

 

By Sir Charlattam

A week and a half ago, after the brutal attack on 22 April in Indian-controlled Kashmir, Narendra Modi's government took the dangerous decision to launch an attack on Pakistan on the grounds that it is supporting Kashmiri Islamic resistance groups from there.

In the meantime, beyond the brutal attack and the immediate accusation that the Indian government launched against its neighbour, there is no hard evidence or official claims about the attack, so what were Modi's elements of conviction to authorise such a decision?

The surprise attacks began on 7 May on nine enclaves in Pakistani territory, killing more than 26 civilians, injuring dozens more and destroying mosques and several family homes. Following condemnation by the government in Islamabad, the response was swift and Pakistani forces responded with several attacks against India, and even as the days passed hostilities continued with some frustrated attempts to impose a ceasefire.

The timing of this escalation could not have been more complex and timely for some.

While trying to put an end to the war in Ukraine and Israel was preparing for a new mopping up operation in the Gaza Strip, a terrorist attack in a tourist area of Pahalgam in Kashmir coincidentally triggered a chain of consequences that diverted attention to that area, where the fighting has not yet stopped.

It seems that Modi and his generals have tried to recreate the doctrine of their Israeli allies, which is unlimited retaliation against an entire community without respecting boundaries or distinguishing between combatants and civilians. No one is surprised that this approach is shared by Zionists and Indian nationalists, especially those in the ruling party, for both share a common thread, namely hatred of Muslims.

Despite Washington's appearance to convince the parties to stop the hostilities, this has not happened, demonstrating a notable loss of influence. For the time being, and contrary to the expectations of the Indian military, the Pakistani response has been harsher than expected and has set them back with heavy losses. In light of this, there are many questions that Indian politicians and especially the opposition to Modi should ask themselves: has Modi acted in a rash and unconscionable manner without measuring the consequences for India, and if he has a satisfactory answer to that question, has he considered regional stability and peace with such a decision?

Politically, Modi believes he is above international law, just like his colleague in Tel Aviv who can apparently carry out genocide without any action having been taken against him so far. Geopolitically, his closeness to the Washington-Brussels-Tel Aviv axis is seen as a security card for his political aspirations to establish a pro-Western India in the region.

From that perspective Modi acts as an agent for such interests and in that plan he can only unleash a great deal of suspicion among his neighbours about his every move. China is undoubtedly foremost among them who view with justifiable concern this kind of reaction which is nothing more than the importation of proven failed and inhumanly cruel doctrines.

With reference to the military issue, it can be seen that India's action was based on a prejudiced assessment and not on reliable and accurate information. There is no doubt that the Indian generals gambled on this move keeping in mind the complicated socio-political situation in Pakistan and also without weighing the actual military capabilities of their adversary. It seems that Indian intelligence reports have either not reflected the real potentialities of their adversary or directly underestimated them. Perhaps the Pakistanis were smarter and kept them well hidden. It is known that there is a bilateral arms deal between China and Pakistan that has provided the latter's armed forces with high-tech equipment.

Nor should we forget the cooperation that exists in the field of the development of nuclear reactors provided by China for power generation.

Reports from reliable sources in the area on the evening of 8 May, who have witnessed some of the largest air engagements so far this century, have pointed to the outstanding performance of Pakistani units, especially their JF-17s, J-10Cs and J-35s, which were able to hold off Indian aircraft (some of them of Western origin) in their attempts to penetrate Pakistani airspace. J-10Cs and J-35s that were able to hold off Indian aircraft (some of which were of Western origin) in their attempts to penetrate Pakistani airspace. 

At the same time, ground units, particularly mechanised infantry units, have also performed very well in skirmishes with their Indian counterparts on the line of contact. 

Beyond the concerns and harsh recriminations that have undoubtedly been voiced within the Modi government, those who have been most concerned about these developments are the Americans and their British counterparts, who view with great concern the good performance of Chinese products, which the Pentagon has been tracking for years to determine China's military capabilities. Expectations and planning for the Indo-Pacific situation under the guise of protecting the island of Taiwan.