STRATEGIC WITHDRAWAL

Why the Americans’ only option in West Asia and the Middle East is politically problematic

 

By Sir Charlattam

Ever since our cousins in Afghanistan were kicked out on their asses, one word has really taken hold amongst the commanders and generals at the Pentagon, and that is ‘let’s run’. It doesn’t sound very professional, but an undercover colleague of mine who was on counter-intelligence duty had already mentioned this to me a few months before it all came crashing down. I should point out that the British forces also had to flee, only we weren’t in charge. We called it ‘Operation Pitting’, but the meaning was something along the lines of ‘let’s get the hell out of Kabul’.

At that moment, it became very clear that the Taliban were far more cunning and tenacious than American intelligence analysts and our own had assessed. To make matters worse, the government that our politicians had installed in Kabul was so corrupt and unpresentable that it further emboldened the mujahideen and won them greater sympathy amongst the population. My source even confided in me that the situation had been reported to London in great detail.

What do you think will happen with Iran? At the moment, open-source information is very scarce and there is virtually no mention of what is actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz. The reason seems obvious: the Iranians, in retaliation for the attacks on civilian infrastructure, are dealing a monumental blow to US military installations across the Persian Gulf (particularly in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain), which has even compromised CENTCOM’s command and control.

Amidst all this, let us not forget the Yemenis, who have already sent a very loud and clear message to the Saudis by destroying two giant oil tankers that were attempting to pass through Bab al-Mandeb.

The situation represents a strategic catastrophe for the Americans, who, in addition to losing military personnel, have already lost communications facilities, barracks, early-warning radar systems and missile launchers, leaving them exposed and forcing US troops to take refuge within cities, just as they did at the start of the aggression in February. According to reliable sources, I have been told that many of these US personnel are staying in hotels in Kuwait City, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A similar situation is unfolding in Jordan, amid fears that Iranian missiles could extend their strikes to target the entire military infrastructure there.

Meanwhile, according to open sources (formerly Unit 8200) operating privately for Israeli intelligence (AXIOS and others), they are working day and night to spread rumours online about alleged political manoeuvres and decisions that Donald Trump is reportedly considering, including, it is claimed, the use of tactical nuclear weapons. For Bibi, this is music to his ears, as it is no secret that the more the conflict escalates, the better it is for his personal interests though I’m not so sure about Israel.

Starmer showed clear-headedness at the time by refusing to side with the Americans in this venture, despite pro-Israeli lobby groups flooding Downing Street’s phone lines and servers in an attempt to get us involved in the conflict. But if there is one valid and significant reason for Britain, it is that we have sensitive facilities in Oman and several intelligence stations throughout the region. But it did not last long, and today the incoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, under the pretext of ensuring the safety of ships with British interests in the Strait, has already given Trump the green light. In plain terms, this means: the Royal Navy is at Washington’s disposal.

Perhaps Burnham is not fully aware of the state of the naval forces and the low budget, which has been a constant source of dispute between Whitehall and Parliament, but it may simply have been a courtesy aimed at easing the pressure from the administration in Washington DC.

But even if that were not the case, the Prime Minister should take into account what we have been witnessing over the past week, which – in addition to the costs this will entail for the Arab monarchies – has devastated the infrastructure of US forces in a show of Iranian power that no one in the West expected to see. Added to this, the precise and strategic Iranian attacks such as those carried out against the radar and early-warning systems at Ahmad Al Jaber in Kuwait, and the facilities in Jordan and Al Juffair Bahrain – leave no doubt that they are being aided by top-level strategic intelligence that could well be of Chinese or Russian origin, or both.

This also puts into perspective the highly effective combination of Iranian-made missiles with the electronic intelligence systems that guide them with such precision. This reveals that it is not the result of improvisation or a last-minute decision; the personnel firing these missiles and drones do not do so without knowing where they are going. Even if that were the case, what criticism could Trump – or indeed the political establishment in Washington – level when they have been supporting Zelensky’s neo-Nazis in killing Russian citizens?

The list of reasons why Moscow is justified in returning the favour is very long, and perhaps the Russian government has decided to reciprocate with its Western ‘partners’.

But the dangers for the US in the region do not end there. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth should give very serious consideration to the fact that there could be other guests at the party, one of whom would be North Korea, which, in addition to signalling support for Tehran and issuing serious warnings to Tel Aviv, possesses hypersonic intercontinental missile capabilities that could turn the tables in unexpected ways.

America and in particular the current MAGA administration has messed up the Middle East and, more specifically today, West Asia, leaving Trump with very little scope for a clear victory, either militarily or politically. If he were to act on the foolish advice being whispered to him by his advisers who in turn are listening to Netanyahu’s instigators in Washington DC it would definitely make matters worse for the US, for us and for the whole world.